Here's what has to happen if you want to score one of those plucky "low-seed takes down a high-seed" upsets that make March so magical:

Everything has to go right. Not for a series or a quarter or a half—all day (or all weekend, as the 2016 Austin Peay men's basketball team learned). Threes that spent most of the year drawing iron have to be true. All the lucky bounces have to go your way. Defense has to turn up a dozen notches. Every 50-50 ball off the glass has to go your way. At least one unexpected player has to rise to the occasion and deliver an unexpected Moment that will indelibly become the singular memory any fan has whenever their name comes up. Add in a plucky senior playing for one last shot at a title and you've got the recipe.

These are not negotiable. We just spent an entire regular season deciding the top teams in the league. If you have to see one of the top two on the first day of the tournament, they've earned the right to be there and they aren't likely to roll over for anyone, especially since they likely had to take you down somewhere along the way to get where they are now. You're going to need all these factors to line up for you to take down one of the big dogs.

And even then, sometimes that's not going to get it done. The favorites are the favorites for a reason; they've been getting everybody's best shot all season and haven't backed down yet. You can put together your best possible game plan, execute it to perfection and still have Fate, in its cruelty, end your season.

And now we come to the finale for the Austin Peay State University women's basketball team in 2019-20.

The Govs had lost to second-seeded Belmont twice in 2019-20; a one-point heartbreaker at home, Jan. 25, and a 69-46 affair in Nashville, Feb. 8. The Bruins had won four straight OVC Tournament titles and are on the shortlist for favorites to go five-for-five. It's likely that didn't happen by accident.

Yet there were hints early that something special was afoot for the Govs. A five-second call on Belmont's second possession of the game. Some huge threes in the first half, for a team that barely hit 30 percent from deep during league play.

Perhaps more germane to the situation, the Govs had no fear. At all.

"We treated this like another game," said head coach David Midlick. "We wanted to be on point. We took some things that were good and bad from our two meetings with them in the regular season, but we wanted to keep it as normal as possible."

Austin Peay dialed it up about three dozen notches defensively. The Govs hit the floor in pursuit of every loose ball, drawing charges, pestering Belmont and generally making the Bruins hate playing them. They didn't wait on luck to decide if it was on their side today; their dogged pursuit of the ball every time it was left unattended decided that for them.

Myah LeFlore filled the unexpected hero role beautifully. The oft-injured junior who entered the day averaging 1.8 points in seven minutes per game didn't just provide a spark; in 23 minutes, she put up 14 points on a night when some of the players who usually provided those minutes didn't have it going. Myah, the gregarious enigma whose personality is the Austin Peay ethos, having the game of her life on one of the biggest stages she'll play on lifted her teammates to a higher place.

"I knew we were going to have to play hard and hustle," LeFlore said. "I was just finding the open spots on offense and knocking down the open shots when my name was called or when I found myself open."

So singular performance, accomplished.

And that senior seeking a last shot at glory? That would be Arielle Gonzalez-Varner, who threw the Govs on her back with a 20-point effort, including 14 in the second half and overtime as she willed her teammates onward.

"I thought we were going to pull it out," Gonzalez-Varner said. "I had all the faith in the world that my teammates were going to be able to pull it out even though I wasn't on the floor [after fouling out]."

It was all there. Everything was lining up, including a six-point lead for the Govs early in the third quarter and a four-point advantage late in the fourth after rallying from a seven-point deficit in the fourth quarter. The Govs had a chance. That's all those in pursuit of the upset can ask for.

The glory was snatched away in overtime, in a 76-73 defeat. For every UMBC over Virginia, Norfolk State over Duke or any other upset in March, there are dozens of near-misses, last-gasp threes that fell to the side or underdogs who merely ran out of steam. The winner gets to write the history, as the saying goes. Those in defeat, however valiant, don't often get remembered.

This one should, for a couple of reasons. One, Gonzalez-Varner turned in an outstanding performance in her final time putting on an Austin Peay uniform. For another, this should be a springboard to better things in the future for some of the Govs who came up big against the Bruins. LeFlore, D'Shara Booker (eight points, nine rebounds) and All-Newcomer choice Ella Sawyer (10 points, five assists) are all back next year. Next March, don't be terribly surprised to hear, "I knew they had a chance to be this good when I saw them take Belmont to the limit a year ago."